A proposal to develop a model for the future strategy of materials industries

Research Institute for Safety and Sustainability, AIST, Japan
e-mail: a-inaba@aist.go.jp

Received: 19 February 2012
Accepted: 22 June 2012

Abstract

In this presentation, the development of a simulation model that can examine the long-term strategy of materials industries, called a material strategy model, is proposed. This model has the following structure: first, the world is divided into a number of areas and a scenario for the demand for end products in the future in each area is provided. Then, the system required to realize the scenario and to minimize CO₂ emission or the total cost is calculated using this model. In other words, the optimization to select processes in society to minimize total CO₂ emission or total cost is carried out. As a result, the possibility of the long-term scenario; for example, the amount of car production based on population increase and GDP growth, can be discussed by considering CO₂ emission and consumption of resources. A few simulation models to discuss long-term strategy have been developed in the field of energy system studies. In the energy system model, only a few resources such as coal, oil, natural gas and uranium are considered, but, in the material strategy model, it is necessary to examine many materials and resources. In addition, the material strategy model should have an energy model as one part of the model. As a first step, a prototype model mainly focusing on iron and steel with their alloys should be developed to show the capability to develop the whole model.